Silver’s parabolic run toward $119 pits bubble warnings against structural deficits, with crypto traders watching for a classic blow-off or a lasting squeeze.
Summary
- Silver has ripped over 60% this month and about 275% in a year, echoing past blow-offs as Kolanovic and Brandt flag speculative, meme-like excess.
- Citigroup still sees scope for a push toward $150, citing seven years of supply deficits, record industrial demand, Chinese export curbs and surging ETF volumes.
- Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana trade near cycle highs as macro-driven crypto desks study silver’s spike for clues about risk appetite and bubble dynamics.
Silver’s vertical climb to a record $119 an ounce has lit up terminals—and set off alarm bells from some of the market’s most battle‑scarred veterans. The metal has surged more than 60% in January and roughly 275% over the past year, its strongest monthly run since the Hunt brothers’ ill‑fated corner in 1979.
A Blow‑Off Top, Or “Gold On Steroids”?
Former JPMorgan chief strategist Marko Kolanovic is openly calling time on the party. He warns that silver is “almost guaranteed to drop ~50% from these levels within a year or so,” describing the move as a speculative blow‑off driven by “momentum buying and meme‑style trading behavior rather than durable fundamentals.” Veteran trader Peter Brandt points out that “nearly two years of world production traded on world exchanges—over 1.5 billion ounces,” the highest intensity of turnover since the day of the 2011 top.
Not everyone is running for the exits. Citigroup has hiked its near‑term target to $150 an ounce and characterizes silver as “gold squared” or “gold on steroids,” arguing that a mix of strong physical demand, speculative flows and thin liquidity can still drive prices higher. The iShares Silver Trust has already seen single‑session trading volumes approach $40 billion, nearly matching the SPDR S&P 500 ETF—a sign of how aggressively retail and macro money have piled in.
Structural Tightness Meets Bubble Risk
Bulls insist this is not a rerun of 1980. The market has logged seven consecutive years of supply deficits, while industrial demand hit record highs in 2025. Solar manufacturing alone is expected to consume 120–125 million ounces of silver in 2026, with electric vehicles adding 70–75 million ounces. China’s move to reclassify silver as a strategic material—and tighten export licenses from January 1—has further squeezed available supply.
Yet HSBC cautions that it is “unlikely that silver has become a new safe‑haven asset,” arguing that as prices “began to catch up with gold, momentum took over and retail investors joined in.” As Kolanovic notes, commodity bubbles “collide with physical reality” as high prices crush industrial demand, accelerate recycling and incentivize hedged supply.
Crypto Markets Watching Closely
This parabolic move comes as digital assets continue to trade as the purest expression of macro risk appetite. Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $88,235, with a 24‑hour high near $90,476 and a low near $87,549, on roughly $32.8B in dollar volumes. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands close to $2,953, with about $23.4B in 24‑hour turnover and spot quotes clustered in the $4,500–$4,600 band on major exchanges earlier this week. Solana trades around $192, up about 2.7% over the last 24 hours, with nearly $9.8B in volume.
For macro‑driven crypto traders, silver’s behavior looks uncomfortably familiar: a scarce asset, real policy risk, and a retail‑fueled chase into ever‑thinner liquidity. The question now is whether silver’s “gold on steroids” phase ends like a classic meme‑era blow‑off—or whether this time, the industrial squeeze and strategic stockpiling prove strong enough to keep the bubble from bursting on schedule.
