Hyperliquid Enters Downtrend: Will HYPE Run On Alt Season?

Hyperliquid has been underwhelming over the past couple of weeks. Market structure broke on the daily timeframe and doom is looming in the charts. What does the future hold for

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Hyperliquid
HYPE8

$40.58


1.09%

Hyperliquid
HYPE8


Price

$40.58

1.09% /24h





Volume in 24h

$203.42M
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–>


Price 7d

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hodlers – is the hype over? Is Hype price driven by hype at all, as memcoins prices are? Or are there real fundamentals that hold this project afloat?

I didn’t know BATMAN is into crypto and charting too. What a turn of events – from fighting bad guys on the streets of Gotham, to fighting with mysterious market makers and retail on the front lines of trading! Anyway, he (or she) highlighted a breakout of the downtrend. How significant will it be? We will find out soon. Catch up with the previous HYPE anaylsis here.

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Are Hyperliquid Fundamentals Still Good And What Do The Charts Say?

Well, HYPE’s annualised revenue is over 1.2 billion dollars. That is significant, considering that the market cap is 10bn and only a handful of people run the platform. Most of the revenue comes in the form of platform fees and 95-97% go towards token buybacks, while just 3-5% are used for operating costs. In other words, annual operation costs for Hyperliquid are $30-50 million. Compared to a CEX such as Coinbase’s 600 million of operating costs for a quarter, or 2.4bn per year, that is a huge difference. HYPE can boast with great fundamentals for a business.

(Source – Tradingview, HYPEUSD)

Now, let’s start our technical analysis with the Weekly timeframe. Things we notice here are our 2024 and 2025 highs. Last year’s high is currently acting as support. Price history is short, therefore we have no Moving Averages available on this timeframe. But we do have a bearish divergence on RSI, which sent price down to support. It also broke it’s uptrend support, which is less significant than the horizontal one from 2024.

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(Source – Tradingview, HYPEUSD)

Next is the Daily chart. Here we have the clear market structure break mentioned in the introduction of this article. Following the MSB we have a lower high and a lower now. Yesterday’s candle closed as a Bullish Engulfing and reclaimed MA200. For now it seems like the $35 level is a strong support. RSI has been reset and can make a run for the upper half again. Will HYPE USD test the $60 resistance one more time?

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Low Timeframe Analysis and Final Thoughts on HYPE USD

(Source – Tradingview, HYPEUSD)

Finally, we look at the 4H timeframe. We had a bullish MSB, which did not even get to September’s high. It topped on the second Higher High with a RSI bearish divergence and a bearish engulfing candle. Eventually we had a bearish MSB as price broke below all MAs and retested MA100 before the Black Swan event of October 10th. Now Hyperliquid is struggling to reclaim the Moving Averages, entering the upper half of RSI, which indicates some strength. Will HYPE run on alt season? Breaking above $40 and testing it as support could send HYPE USD to $60 again. And then hopefully higher…

Trade safely and use good risk management!

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