Solana price forms a falling wedge, can it break past $80 psychological resistance?

Solana price has remained below the $80 psychological barrier after renewed macro pressure and weakening risk appetite pushed buyers into a wait-and-see mode despite an emerging bullish chart pattern.

According to data from crypto.news, Solana (SOL) price traded near $76.3 on July 13 after slipping almost 1% over the previous 24 hours. The token has spent the past several sessions consolidating as rising U.S. Treasury yields and persistent expectations that interest rates could stay higher for longer continued to pressure high-beta crypto assets.

Bitcoin held close to $64,000 during the same period, but institutional demand remained concentrated in larger-cap assets, limiting Solana’s ability to reclaim the $80 level.

Network activity has nevertheless remained resilient. Active addresses have stayed near yearly highs while transaction throughput continues to benefit from speculative meme coin trading and recent network upgrades. Yet those on-chain gains have not translated into sustained price appreciation as capital has largely circulated within the ecosystem instead of attracting fresh external inflows.

Combined with softer institutional appetite following a difficult second quarter for digital asset investment products, the imbalance has left SOL struggling to establish a fresh uptrend.

Commenting on the latest price structure, analyst Eliz argued that the recent pullback should not necessarily be viewed as bearish.

“$SOL is showing an orderly bearish consolidation following the rally. This type of price action is often a positive sign: the market is shaking off excesses without compromising the bullish structure.”

The analyst added that, “As long as the outlook remains unchanged, I continue to expect the upward trend to continue.”

Falling wedge keeps breakout hopes alive despite weakening momentum

The 4-hour chart shows Solana carving out a falling wedge after rejecting the early July high above $83. The pattern has compressed price action between descending trendlines, with support holding near the Fibonacci 100% retracement around $75.4 while resistance has gradually fallen toward $78.5.

A decisive move above the upper boundary would expose the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $78.6, followed by $79.6, before bringing the key $80 psychological barrier back into focus. A successful breakout could then open the path toward $81.8 and the recent swing high near $83.7.

Momentum indicators, however, remain mixed. The 4-hour RSI sits just below the neutral 50 level at around 40, leaving buyers without clear momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD remains below its signal line with only a modest improvement in histogram bars, suggesting bearish momentum has slowed but has not yet reversed.

The daily chart presents a similar picture. SOL continues to trade above the major Murrey Math support level at $75 while Chaikin Money Flow has recovered into positive territory near 0.10, showing that capital has continued to enter the asset despite the recent consolidation.

Still, the market has repeatedly rejected advances toward the 5/8 Murrey resistance near $81.25, reinforcing the importance of the $80-$81 region.

Derivatives positioning also identifies nearby trigger zones. CoinGlass liquidation data shows one of the largest short liquidation clusters sitting around $79.5-$80, with another concentration extending above $81.

A strong breakout through those levels could force leveraged short positions to close, adding fuel to an upside move. On the downside, notable long liquidation pockets have accumulated around $75 and just below $74.5, making those areas important support if selling pressure intensifies.

Macro headwinds continue to threaten the bullish setup

Any bullish breakout remains dependent on improving macro conditions. Rising Treasury yields have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, prompting institutions to reduce exposure to more volatile layer-1 tokens such as Solana. Upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve policy expectations are therefore likely to remain major catalysts for the crypto market over the coming weeks.

The bullish wedge thesis would weaken if SOL closes decisively below the $75 support zone, as that would invalidate the current pattern and expose the Murrey support near $68.75. A deeper correction could then bring the $62.5 pivot region back into play.

Conversely, sustained buying above $80 would break both the falling wedge and a multi-session resistance zone, increasing the probability of a move toward $83-$84 where the next significant supply cluster awaits.